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Land Use

  1. Existing and Historical Land Use
  2. Land Use Modeling and Forecasting

Regional land use distribution is typically recognized as one of the underlying factors driving the demand for transportation and other infrastructures and facilities. Pima Association of Governments has been actively working with its member jurisdictions to compile land use information and forecast the future land use and development to support various important planning efforts in Pima County.

Specifically, PAG uses the latest decennial or special census information, employment data from commercial sources, and general land use plans and visions developed by jurisdictions  to produce the projections of population, housing units and employment at both region and TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zone) level. PAG’s travel demand and air quality models use these projections to forecast traffic and vehicle emissions, which subsequently are used to inform a wide variety of other regional planning programs.

Existing and Historical Land Use

The existing and historical land use portrays the historical evolution pattern of population, employment and other aspects in Pima County. Pima Association of Governments (PAG) works with jurisdictions to compile the land use information and develop maps to inform the decision-making and support various planning studies in Pima County.

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Land Use Modeling and Forecasting

Pima Association of Governments has developed future land use and and population scenarios using the land use modeling software (SAM IM) to generate future land use. It spatially allocates future population based on known existing land use, land developments and planned land use (e.g., jurisdictional general plans) in the PAG planning area. PAG has historically developed 25- year population and employment projections for sub county areas; however, this model will allow us to visualize future land uses under many different scenarios.
Currently, PAG staff is calibrating the model to indentify the relationship between land use and development, and the various impacting factors, and is working with jurisdictional staff in the Planning and Zoning and Development Services Departments to compile the necessary data for forecasting. PAG plans to generate a residential land use forecast on an annual basis and a more thorough employment forecast every five years.

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